Field of 64 postseason projections

May 20 2019

The staff made its picks and decisions weighing overall record, conference record, RPI,  and record vs. Quadrant 1 opponents. 

The first three national hosts are the same for the 4th week in a row. UCLA, Vandy and Arkansas have separated themselves from the rest of the country, in league of their own. UCLA is undefeated in mid-weeks after latest win over UC Irvine. Vanderbilt has taken the the SEC regular season title! Arkansas "co-champions" of the SEC West finishes out the Top 3. 

Louisville winners of the ACC Regular Season come in at the #4 national seed. The Cardinals have showed the ACC they are the best team in not only the Atlantic divison but the whole conference. East Carolina moves up right behind them to the #5 spot, winners of American Athletic regular season crown. The Pirates' RPI is at #5... yeah thats insane for not being in a power 5 conference. Utter domination. Mississippi State comes in at the #6 national seed. There was MAJOR debate last week on the positioning of Hail State and ECU, the resumes are almost identical. Miss St has 21 Q1 wins, which is unreal and Pirates have 11 wins. Overall records are differentiated by 2 wins. Miss State's Non-Conference SOS is 192... East Carolina's? NINE. We believe East Carolina has done everything they can to put themselves in the national seed conversation. 

This week we have Georgia has a national seed and Georgia Tech just falling out at #9. Jackets can easily get right back in the national seed spot with a strong showing in Durham. 

UC Santa Barbara is still without question a host. They have put their hosting bid in to play in Las Vegas at the Triple-A complex. Will be interesting to see the college baseball crowd that shows up in the Gambling capital of the world! Wonder what their odds are to win it. 

Oklahoma State is in as a host after their latest beatdown of Baylor. The Pokes are up to 8  in the RPI rankings and 3rd in the Big 12 behind Baylor and Texas Tech. 

We have 4 tickets punched already!

1. MEAC- Florida A&M

2. Patriot - Army West Point

3. Ivy - Harvard

4. SWAC - Southern 

Team breakdown by power conferences:

ACC - 8

SEC -11

BigTen - 4

Pac12 - 5

Big12 - 5

Last 5 in - Florida State, Michigan, UCF, Virginia, Florida

Last 5 out - Arizona, Duke, Liberty, UC Irvine, Southern Miss

Florida State heads into ACC tournament with an RPI of 50 and a conference record of 17-13. The Seminoles face Wake Forest and NC State, if they can win their pool, they will have a top 45 RPI and a 10-11 record vs Q1 opponents. Definitely deserve a spot in Field of 64.

Michigan is sitting at 48 in the RPI rankings and finished 2nd in the Big 10 with a 16-7 record. The Wolverines took care of business vs the lesser teams and struggled vs most of the better teams. They also didnt have to play Illinois or Iowa, lost 2-3 vs Indiana and Ohio State. Big Blue lost their chance to take the Big 10 title vs Nebraska. Talk about a favorable Big 10 schedule. Michigan could be sitting at home if there are too many stolen bids. They need to win a few in Big 10 tournament. 

No more BS... TEXAS is out. LOL

UCF winners of 11 out of their last 13 with a big series win over Houston this past weekend. RPI sitting at 44 with AAC tournament in front of them. They really need to win a few games to avoid the stolen bid drama. The Knights are 8-9 vs Q1 opponents so they are right on the brink!

Florida Gators... what are we going to do with you boys? Y'all just know how to keep yourselves relevant! WOW what a road sweep over Missouri to keep your head above water! The Gators are 25 in the RPI with 16-19 record vs Q1 opponents, the perk of playing an SEC conference schedule. Floria also has a 37 NC SOS so they didn't play cupcakes all February and March. With a win or two in the SEC tournament, the Gators will find themselves playing in June. 

Full breakdown below!


May 9 2019 Projections

The staff made its picks and decisions weighing overall record, conference record, RPI,  and record vs. Quadrant 1 opponents.

National seeds were pretty easy to identify as UCLA, Vandy, Arkansas, Miss St, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Oregon State have been the most consistent teams most of the season. 12-16 seeds have been changing every damn week. RPI goes up and down like an hour glass. Teams look great, then look horrendous. Last week LSU was a host, they lost a tough tough series to Ole Miss at home, so by default, we replaced them with the Rebels who are playing great baseball on days that start with Friday Saturday and Sunday, the mid-week woes havent gone away. Illinois gets the hosting pick this week... it won't come without debate and hot takes. But, the Illini are streaking the last few weeks with four straight Big10 series wins including Indiana and Nebraska including an impressive RPI of 19. The Big 10 should get a host bid, and it comes down to Michigan, Indiana and Illinois. Will Illinois hold on to it? Its possible if they can go 5-1 next 2 weekends. 

Santa Barbara needs to keep finding ways to win... and top it off with a Big West title and a few tournament wins to hold on to that hosting bid. Miami and UNC are right in the thick of the ACC title race and beautiful RPIs of 13 and 14 respectively. 

Team breakdown by power conferences:

ACC - 8

SEC - 10

BigTen - 4

Pac12 - 4

Big12 - 5

Last 5 in - Clemson, Louisiana Tech, Wake Forest, Iowa, Oklahoma

Last 5 out - Florida State, Nebraska, Florida, Liberty, UC Irvine

First debate: Why is Iowa in over Nebraska? The Hawkeyes come in with an RPI of 58 and Nebraska's RPI is 44. Iowa is 9-7 vs Q1 opponents... Nebraska? 5-9. Ew. No thank you. Iowa also is playing well down the final stretch. That is HUGE when building momentum to win a bubble bid. Nebraska is skidding to the finish with back to back to back Big 10 series loses including Northwestern. 

Wake Forest has quietly been putting together a solid resume. Having lost only two ACC series all season. They are sitting at 12-12 in the ACC with RPI at 50. That number will only go up with Miami and Clemson the next two weekends. 

Clemson is literally the 5th team of last five in. They are doing everything in their power to not make it. Sheesh. Since their series win over Louisville, they are a disgusting 4-12 in their last 16 including an 8 game bender. They have plenty impressive wins but RPI keeps dropping and the committee loves teams that finish strong. But don't forget, the committee also loves ACC SEC teams. 

Just going to keep this here till the selection Sunday... LOL

Texas is like the 20th team out... I bring them up because we all know come selection Sunday, the Longhorns are going to have a fighting chance to get in, well because its Texas. They are EIGHTH in the Big12 and 8 games under .500 in conference play. Shouldn't even be a debate. HAHAHA and just got swept by a basketball school, Kansas Jayhawks. 

Florida State and Florida. If you do a blind test, their resumes are decent, but there are better choices. Not much needs to be said because we all know, Florida State plays amazing in ACC tournament every year. They do it again? They will get in. Florida won't even pass the above .500 in conference test. Will that rule be bent this year to get them in? Grab your popcorn and lets watch. 

If Liberty just had a few more Q1 games to play before season's end, they would have a great chance. Plenty of big wins, just a terrible conference from an RPI perspective. I hope Liberty finishes strong and has a respectable chance. They deserve it, just need to win the ASUN title and make it at least to tournament semi or championship. 

Road to Omaha. Field of 64

Road to Omaha. Field of 64