Hard thrower, ultra-athletic, and fast mover, though there are some present mechanical flaws to address. Fastball drew 31.9% whiffs in 2024, averaging 94.5 mph and up to 100 mph. He’s got average carry from a high release height with above-average extension, but is able to generate advantageous vertical approach angles, and as a result whiffs up in the zone. Slider results have been very poor, drawing just 14.3% whiffs without an above-average chase rate. The shape isn’t inherently poor (0.5” vertical, -4” horizontal), but is not notable either. I’d like to see him commit to a velocity-first approach here (average >88 mph) without much regard for what the shape turns into, throw it hard and results will tend to follow. I’m a big fan of the curveball, which is a 2-plane banger. Sits 81 mph with a plus movement profile and generated 36.4% whiffs and elite batted ball outcomes.

Johnson has plus feel for a low-80s slider that can play like a sweeper at times, it's his best pitch that flashes above-average. His upper-70s curve is a slurve of sorts that misses bats, his heater gets up to 99 and ranges from 92-97 throughout starts with occasional run and slight sink but a generic shape that doesn't perform very well. His CH has late depth with fade. He's a supinator with SSW traits in both his sinker and changeup at their best. He racked up the strikeouts last year and just missed out on being eligible as a sophomore where he might've been a top-3 round pick had he been eligible.

The receiving for Jay has been a tick below-average metrically speaking, but the arm here is really good. He’s athletic enough that he should be able to make catching work long term. Offensively, you’re getting plus-plus raw power, a 116 mph Max EV with 62% of his batted balls coming at >95 mph and a 32.1% barrel rate. There’s loft and elite contact quality, enough to assume the BABIP will always be high, as well. The issue is how extreme the whiffs are, with a 37.1% whiff rate. The bat-to-ball will limit his upside and act as a fatal flaw for some teams, but there’s reason to believe a path to the big leagues exists.