As the college season unfolds, a handful of arms have significantly elevated their draft stock, showcasing premium velocity, advanced pitch shapes, and high-level execution. Whether it’s a reliever transitioning into a dominant starter, a high-profile prospect bouncing back from injury, or a power arm refining secondary offerings, these pitchers have turned heads with their performances. From Liam Doyle’s overpowering fastball to Chase Shores’ electric arsenal, this group of five has made a strong case as early-round picks in July. Here’s a closer look at the data behind this season's biggest risers on the mound.
Liam Doyle
Doyle’s stuff has been up since he set foot in Knoxville this fall. Through 3 starts, Doyle is averaging his max fastball velocity from 2024 while flirting with 100 mph. He’s got 21.7” of carry from a 5.7’ release and has been unhittable when he’s pitching up, posting a 69% whiff rate so far. His mid-80s slider has been great in small samples, getting 10.5” of sweep. The shapes on his change-up and cutter have looked great as well, with his cutter at 87 mph with 6” of carry and 6” of sweep and the change-up getting nearly 20” of arm-side run and 2” of vertical break. He’s leaned heavily on the fastball, throwing the pitch nearly 50% of the time, in large part because he’s been able to dominate inferior competition, and he’ll need to show the secondaries in full at some point. In a vacuum the shapes all look the part of a top of the first round arm, but only time will tell.
Patrick Forbes
Forbes is throwing a complete rise ball as his fastball. It’s 95 mph with 16” of carry and 13” of arm-side from a 5.4’ release. The average VAA is -3.85, and -3.46 to the top third of the strike zone. He’s hammering the top part of the zone with it and with success, drawingwhiffs and 44% chase thus far. His slider is really more of a sweeper, getting 10” of sweep at 82 mph. Though he’s given up some hard contact on the pitch, it’s been amazing when he’s landing it glove-side. In his most recent start last Friday, Forbes started throwing a bullet slider/cutter shape. It had 3” of vertical break and 4” of cut, acting as an out pitch for him despite spotty command at times. His fourth pitch is a change-up I’d love to see more of at 89 mph with 18.3” of arm-side run. It’s a potential plus pitch, though he’s thrown just 5 this season.
Marcus Phillips
Phillips spent the past two years as a reliever for the Vols but has transitioned to a starting role this season without missing a beat. He’s run his fastball up to 100 mph, sitting 97, with 14” of carry and 8” of arm-side run. His above-average extension and low release height help him achieve a -3.50 VAA to the top third, though he continues to work down in the zone, giving him one of the highest VAA residuals in the country, indicating a significantly steeper average VAA than expected. His slider sits at 87 mph with lift and 8” of sweep, generating whiffs at a 45.8% clip while holding opponents to a .105 xwOBA (.038 on contact). His changeup functions more like a splinker, averaging 92 mph (touching 95) with 1” of lift and 15.2” of arm-side run. He’s thrown it just 12 times this season, but in a larger sample, it has the potential to be a plus or better offering. If Phillips continues to impress as a starter, the sky's the limit for him draft wise.
Riley Quick
Coming off of Tommy John this spring, Quick has lived up to the hype built in his freshman year. His primary pitch is the sinker, getting 17.2” of arm-side run with 9” of vertical break. He also has a four-seam shape, which is more of a two-plane pitch, getting 15” of vertical and 12” of arm-side run. He throws both shapes in the 94-98 mph range on average, touching triple digits. He’s throwing the four-seam 16% of the time, having a ton of success on the pitch despite the shape due to the combination of plus extension and velocity. His chase pitch is the slider, which he throws at 86 mph with 2” of depth and 9” of sweep. He’s got a feel of the offering and does a great job landing the pitch to his glove-side. Arguably his best shape is his change-up at 90 mph with 1.3” of lift and 17” of arm-side. He’s throwing it almost exclusively to left handed hitters, but it’s been his best pitch in terms of results with a near-70% whiff rate and a .044 xwOBA.
Chase Shores
Shores has been a well-known prospect since high school but entered this season with just 18.1 collegiate innings due to injury. Since his return, the stuff has lived up to the hype, touching 100 mph in his third start. His fastball features a unique shape with 9.6” of vertical break and 9.3” of arm-side run, a typical deadzone profile, but the velocity allows it to play to average or better results. He’s mixing in a sinker 18% of the time, averaging 95 mph with 4.2” of vertical and 17” of arm-side run, generating a 30% whiff rate and 40% chase. His changeup is almost identical in shape to the sinker’s shape but comes in 6 mph slower. His fourth offering is an 85 mph slider with 9” of sweep, producing a 60% whiff rate so far. He’s got a complete pitch mix, feel for the strike zone, and a starter’s frame, making him an enticing first-round prospect if he holds this level of performance.
As the college season unfolds, a handful of arms have significantly elevated their draft stock, showcasing premium velocity, advanced pitch shapes, and high-level execution. Whether it’s a reliever transitioning into a dominant starter, a high-profile prospect bouncing back from injury, or a power arm refining secondary offerings, these pitchers have turned heads with their performances. From Liam Doyle’s overpowering fastball to Chase Shores’ electric arsenal, this group of five has made a strong case as early-round picks in July. Here’s a closer look at the data behind this season's biggest risers on the mound.
Liam Doyle
Doyle’s stuff has been up since he set foot in Knoxville this fall. Through 3 starts, Doyle is averaging his max fastball velocity from 2024 while flirting with 100 mph. He’s got 21.7” of carry from a 5.7’ release and has been unhittable when he’s pitching up, posting a 69% whiff rate so far. His mid-80s slider has been great in small samples, getting 10.5” of sweep. The shapes on his change-up and cutter have looked great as well, with his cutter at 87 mph with 6” of carry and 6” of sweep and the change-up getting nearly 20” of arm-side run and 2” of vertical break. He’s leaned heavily on the fastball, throwing the pitch nearly 50% of the time, in large part because he’s been able to dominate inferior competition, and he’ll need to show the secondaries in full at some point. In a vacuum the shapes all look the part of a top of the first round arm, but only time will tell.
Patrick Forbes
Forbes is throwing a complete rise ball as his fastball. It’s 95 mph with 16” of carry and 13” of arm-side from a 5.4’ release. The average VAA is -3.85, and -3.46 to the top third of the strike zone. He’s hammering the top part of the zone with it and with success, drawingwhiffs and 44% chase thus far. His slider is really more of a sweeper, getting 10” of sweep at 82 mph. Though he’s given up some hard contact on the pitch, it’s been amazing when he’s landing it glove-side. In his most recent start last Friday, Forbes started throwing a bullet slider/cutter shape. It had 3” of vertical break and 4” of cut, acting as an out pitch for him despite spotty command at times. His fourth pitch is a change-up I’d love to see more of at 89 mph with 18.3” of arm-side run. It’s a potential plus pitch, though he’s thrown just 5 this season.
Marcus Phillips
Phillips spent the past two years as a reliever for the Vols but has transitioned to a starting role this season without missing a beat. He’s run his fastball up to 100 mph, sitting 97, with 14” of carry and 8” of arm-side run. His above-average extension and low release height help him achieve a -3.50 VAA to the top third, though he continues to work down in the zone, giving him one of the highest VAA residuals in the country, indicating a significantly steeper average VAA than expected. His slider sits at 87 mph with lift and 8” of sweep, generating whiffs at a 45.8% clip while holding opponents to a .105 xwOBA (.038 on contact). His changeup functions more like a splinker, averaging 92 mph (touching 95) with 1” of lift and 15.2” of arm-side run. He’s thrown it just 12 times this season, but in a larger sample, it has the potential to be a plus or better offering. If Phillips continues to impress as a starter, the sky's the limit for him draft wise.
Riley Quick
Coming off of Tommy John this spring, Quick has lived up to the hype built in his freshman year. His primary pitch is the sinker, getting 17.2” of arm-side run with 9” of vertical break. He also has a four-seam shape, which is more of a two-plane pitch, getting 15” of vertical and 12” of arm-side run. He throws both shapes in the 94-98 mph range on average, touching triple digits. He’s throwing the four-seam 16% of the time, having a ton of success on the pitch despite the shape due to the combination of plus extension and velocity. His chase pitch is the slider, which he throws at 86 mph with 2” of depth and 9” of sweep. He’s got a feel of the offering and does a great job landing the pitch to his glove-side. Arguably his best shape is his change-up at 90 mph with 1.3” of lift and 17” of arm-side. He’s throwing it almost exclusively to left handed hitters, but it’s been his best pitch in terms of results with a near-70% whiff rate and a .044 xwOBA.
Chase Shores
Shores has been a well-known prospect since high school but entered this season with just 18.1 collegiate innings due to injury. Since his return, the stuff has lived up to the hype, touching 100 mph in his third start. His fastball features a unique shape with 9.6” of vertical break and 9.3” of arm-side run, a typical deadzone profile, but the velocity allows it to play to average or better results. He’s mixing in a sinker 18% of the time, averaging 95 mph with 4.2” of vertical and 17” of arm-side run, generating a 30% whiff rate and 40% chase. His changeup is almost identical in shape to the sinker’s shape but comes in 6 mph slower. His fourth offering is an 85 mph slider with 9” of sweep, producing a 60% whiff rate so far. He’s got a complete pitch mix, feel for the strike zone, and a starter’s frame, making him an enticing first-round prospect if he holds this level of performance.
