Listen, I have always been somebody to celebrate other people's success over my own. This season I want to make sure 11Point7 followers are cashing their gambling tickets and turning a profit. In my opinion, college baseball gambling has one of the biggest upsides out of any sport because we can come more prepared than the analysts in Las Vegas, who are more focused on March Madness and the Super Bowl.
What I did for y'all is put together some things to think about before placing college baseball bets. These tips won't win you every bet, but it sure as hell gives you a better chance than just betting blindly on a game without doing any research. I really do believe if you stick to the basics and don't wonder off too far, you should be in the green when the season wraps up in June.
Also, if you are a serious gambler and want my personal gambling picks all season long, we will have an exclusive group on our Patreon and Discord where I share my picks and analysis with every member throughout the season, including future's bets, and post-season play.
Okie dokie, let's talk some strategies you can use this season.
Futures: When it comes to future bets, it’s all about the value. College Baseball has one of the most interesting future’s markets due to the lack of knowledge the bookmakers have about each individual team. There are 2 specific times during the year that I am looking at taking advantage of College World Series champion odds. The first time is obviously in the pre-season. This is because I feel that I am smarter and more prepared than Vegas. Of course, LSU, Tennessee, and Stanford are going to be the 3 favorites to win the CWS in the pre-season. But that means absolutely nothing to me because we are looking for VALUE, and an opportunity to hedge in the end to secure profit. I usually target 3-5 teams in the pre-season that are at ridiculously high odds that have the players, coaching, and post-season experience to bring home a National Title. The first place my head goes is to SEC, ACC, and Big 12 long shots. Let’s take Missouri for example. Currently on Circa Sportsbook they are 600-1 to win the CWS. Obviously, Missouri has a better chance of finishing in last place in the SEC and not even qualifying for NCAA Regionals, but as we saw last year, even the last team in the field can win it all (Ole Miss). Another example would be to look at a Notre Dame, Georgia Southern, or Kentucky at 200-1 odds. Those 3 teams all played great baseball closing out last year, and really didn’t lose a lot compared to a lot of teams. Notre Dame went to the CWS, Georgia Southern hosted a regional, and Kentucky beat Tennessee 2 out of 3 late in the regular season to show they can play with anybody. I know, I know, I know… you probably can’t close your eyes and see any of those teams winning the whole damn thing, but all you need is one of them to make a deep run in the tournament and you will have a huge opportunity to hedge your way out with ease. After looking at Circa’s pre-season future’s, I love a lot of the teams in the 60-1 to 150-1 range, which is probably where I would put my money at the time. These teams are all probably shoe-ins to make the NCAA tournament, and once you’re in, anything can happen. I would never recommend betting anything shorter than 30-1 preseason, unless they are your favorite team and you think they will go all the way this year. And please do not bet on LSU +450 to win the College World Series in February… I promise you that you will get a much better number at some point in the season when they struggle. It’s so hard to go wire-to-wire #1 team in the country. In fact, it’s never been done before. At some point in the season there will be another #1 team in the country, and boom, then you can bet on LSU.
The other time I would recommend looking at CWS future’s is after the regional brackets are set and you can look at the layout of the tournament. Who is hosting? Which 3 seed can make it to Omaha? Which team is playing the best baseball right now? All of those questions play into the gambling factor that we need to estimate value over what the books have it. I hate to be cliche and bring up this example, but Ole Miss was 100-1 odds to win the CWS last season at the beginning of regionals and THEY FREAKIN WON IT! Oklahoma, who finished 2nd, was 60-1 on some books to win it all. I mean, you didn’t have to be a genius to look at those 2 teams heading into the tournament and say “you know what, those teams are hot right now and have the talent to win it all. Let’s throw $20 on each of them and see what happens”.
Friday Nights:
Most of your college baseball fans already know this, but we do have a lot of new people interested in college baseball gambling so let me explain real quick. Basically, Friday Nights are when each team throws their best pitchers. It’s crucial to win the first game of a best of 3 series so that’s when we see our top guns throwing. Usually, you will also see each team's best bullpen arms as well, since they could get a day of rest and throw Sunday again, maximizing their best weapons for 2 of the 3 games. So naturally everyone assumes Friday nights are going to be these low scoring battles where each starter goes 8 innings with 1 run. So we should all bet the under, right? Actually no. In fact, that’s one of the biggest mistakes I see out of people who bet on college baseball. The reason why is that Vegas is not dumb. They set these lines anywhere between 1-3 runs lower than Saturday/Sunday games so we are already at a disadvantage. But let me tell you the real reason why I personally like betting Friday night overs… Other than the fact that the NCAA has juiced their baseball’s the last 2 seasons, we are starting to see teams save their best bullpen arms on Friday’s if they get up by 3 or 4 runs, or if they get down by 3 or 4 runs. So, in theory, we would just need one of the starters to not have his best stuff and then we would see both teams throw their B and C guy out of the pen instead of their A guy. Of course, both starters could shove, and it end up being a 1-0 game, but with these metal bats, small ball parks, and suspect defenses, odds are in our favor to get runs in bunches in front of sold-out crowds. In my opinion, it’s easier to hit the over 6.5 on a Friday Night, than an over 11.5 on a Sunday.
Saturday/Sunday:
Winning a college baseball bet on Saturday’s and Sundays really comes down to discipline and research. I say that because one of the biggest advantages you can get over Vegas is bullpen use, and weather. The bookmakers in Las Vegas don’t have time to look at who has/hasn’t pitched, and what direction the wind is going to be blowing in the NC State vs Charlotte game. So, if you have a little bit of time to research those factors, you will have the upper hand cashing that ticket. For example, last season there was a game a Saturday game between some mid-major and Georgia Tech. The Friday night game was back and forth and both teams used their best weapons out of the pen. Well going into Saturday, the over/under was at 9.5 and the wind was blowing out at 20mph. I think the game had over 20 runs scored and probably hit the over in the first 3 innings hahaha. I mean, there is some real money to be made out there if you have the time to look at these few factors.
2nd Midweek Game of Week:
Every once in a while, teams will play a midweek game on Tuesday and Wednesday. Let me tell you what, if you see 2 teams playing their 2nd midweek game of the week, just go ahead and bet that over. It's not guaranteed to hit, but you have so many factors playing in your favor. Not only are these teams going to save their best bullets for Friday, but this is also probably their 5th game in 6 days, so their hitters are well timed up in the box and probably seeing beach balls. On top of that, these games are sometimes used as experiment games for bullpens. Coaches want to see guys out there who don't pitch much to evaluate if they will make the travel roster for the upcoming weekend. Spoiler alert, these guys pitching either have serious control problems or they just flat-out stink. Give me every over throughout the season for 2 teams playing a 2nd midweek game. Done.
Weather:
As a former college baseball player, I can absolutely tell you that weather plays a factor in gameplay. This isn't the MLB with professional level field maintenance crews, or a roof above your head. You are going to see a lot more walks and errors in games below 50 degrees than you are when it’s 90 degrees outside. You are going to see a lot more home runs when the wind is blowing out 12mph vs blowing in 12mph. It’s easier to hit in the rain than it is to pitch and field in the rain. As of right now, there is no easy way to go about researching the weather for each game other than looking it up on the Weather App and plugging it into games available to bet. But you have free access to do your own weather research to give you the best advantage.
Underdogs:
When's the best time to bet an underdog? Well, the best answer is always who is playing baseball right now. College baseball is a very streaky game. Teams will get hot in spurts throughout the season, while others get ice cold. There are many times when Vegas sets the line based off of record alone, so you will see a 12-7 Boston College at +255 against a 16-4 Clemson team. But what flies under the radar is BC has won 6 straight, while Clemson lost 3 of their last 4. This would be an example of when I would be betting an underdog in college baseball. Another example would be teams who lose on Friday night but saved their bullpen for Saturday. I say this because it is very common for teams to bounce back on Saturday after losing on Friday. Many series come down to Sunday's rubber game, so I always feel like there is a lot of value on a Saturday underdog who lost the night before. Especially if they are the home team.
Parlays:
Everyone loves a good parlay. Throw $5 down on 8 random games and try and turn that into $10,000. I do that sometimes for funzies, I’m not even going to lie. But when it comes to making smarter parlays in college baseball, I think there are some great strategies to use. In fact, I’d say there are 3 strategies that will give you the best chance of withdrawing money from your account.
There were many things running through my brain while writing this piece on gambling strategies. I am so passionate about this stuff and probably could have written a 10-page blog about all of the scenarios. I tried my best to condense it into some key factors I use each and every year. Now again, if you are interested in learning more or becoming a part of our college baseball betting community where I share my daily picks and analysis, please take a look at joining our Patreon/Discord channel where we are going to be firing away bets throughout the season and post-season.
Listen, I have always been somebody to celebrate other people's success over my own. This season I want to make sure 11Point7 followers are cashing their gambling tickets and turning a profit. In my opinion, college baseball gambling has one of the biggest upsides out of any sport because we can come more prepared than the analysts in Las Vegas, who are more focused on March Madness and the Super Bowl.
What I did for y'all is put together some things to think about before placing college baseball bets. These tips won't win you every bet, but it sure as hell gives you a better chance than just betting blindly on a game without doing any research. I really do believe if you stick to the basics and don't wonder off too far, you should be in the green when the season wraps up in June.
Also, if you are a serious gambler and want my personal gambling picks all season long, we will have an exclusive group on our Patreon and Discord where I share my picks and analysis with every member throughout the season, including future's bets, and post-season play.
Okie dokie, let's talk some strategies you can use this season.
Futures: When it comes to future bets, it’s all about the value. College Baseball has one of the most interesting future’s markets due to the lack of knowledge the bookmakers have about each individual team. There are 2 specific times during the year that I am looking at taking advantage of College World Series champion odds. The first time is obviously in the pre-season. This is because I feel that I am smarter and more prepared than Vegas. Of course, LSU, Tennessee, and Stanford are going to be the 3 favorites to win the CWS in the pre-season. But that means absolutely nothing to me because we are looking for VALUE, and an opportunity to hedge in the end to secure profit. I usually target 3-5 teams in the pre-season that are at ridiculously high odds that have the players, coaching, and post-season experience to bring home a National Title. The first place my head goes is to SEC, ACC, and Big 12 long shots. Let’s take Missouri for example. Currently on Circa Sportsbook they are 600-1 to win the CWS. Obviously, Missouri has a better chance of finishing in last place in the SEC and not even qualifying for NCAA Regionals, but as we saw last year, even the last team in the field can win it all (Ole Miss). Another example would be to look at a Notre Dame, Georgia Southern, or Kentucky at 200-1 odds. Those 3 teams all played great baseball closing out last year, and really didn’t lose a lot compared to a lot of teams. Notre Dame went to the CWS, Georgia Southern hosted a regional, and Kentucky beat Tennessee 2 out of 3 late in the regular season to show they can play with anybody. I know, I know, I know… you probably can’t close your eyes and see any of those teams winning the whole damn thing, but all you need is one of them to make a deep run in the tournament and you will have a huge opportunity to hedge your way out with ease. After looking at Circa’s pre-season future’s, I love a lot of the teams in the 60-1 to 150-1 range, which is probably where I would put my money at the time. These teams are all probably shoe-ins to make the NCAA tournament, and once you’re in, anything can happen. I would never recommend betting anything shorter than 30-1 preseason, unless they are your favorite team and you think they will go all the way this year. And please do not bet on LSU +450 to win the College World Series in February… I promise you that you will get a much better number at some point in the season when they struggle. It’s so hard to go wire-to-wire #1 team in the country. In fact, it’s never been done before. At some point in the season there will be another #1 team in the country, and boom, then you can bet on LSU.
The other time I would recommend looking at CWS future’s is after the regional brackets are set and you can look at the layout of the tournament. Who is hosting? Which 3 seed can make it to Omaha? Which team is playing the best baseball right now? All of those questions play into the gambling factor that we need to estimate value over what the books have it. I hate to be cliche and bring up this example, but Ole Miss was 100-1 odds to win the CWS last season at the beginning of regionals and THEY FREAKIN WON IT! Oklahoma, who finished 2nd, was 60-1 on some books to win it all. I mean, you didn’t have to be a genius to look at those 2 teams heading into the tournament and say “you know what, those teams are hot right now and have the talent to win it all. Let’s throw $20 on each of them and see what happens”.
Friday Nights:
Most of your college baseball fans already know this, but we do have a lot of new people interested in college baseball gambling so let me explain real quick. Basically, Friday Nights are when each team throws their best pitchers. It’s crucial to win the first game of a best of 3 series so that’s when we see our top guns throwing. Usually, you will also see each team's best bullpen arms as well, since they could get a day of rest and throw Sunday again, maximizing their best weapons for 2 of the 3 games. So naturally everyone assumes Friday nights are going to be these low scoring battles where each starter goes 8 innings with 1 run. So we should all bet the under, right? Actually no. In fact, that’s one of the biggest mistakes I see out of people who bet on college baseball. The reason why is that Vegas is not dumb. They set these lines anywhere between 1-3 runs lower than Saturday/Sunday games so we are already at a disadvantage. But let me tell you the real reason why I personally like betting Friday night overs… Other than the fact that the NCAA has juiced their baseball’s the last 2 seasons, we are starting to see teams save their best bullpen arms on Friday’s if they get up by 3 or 4 runs, or if they get down by 3 or 4 runs. So, in theory, we would just need one of the starters to not have his best stuff and then we would see both teams throw their B and C guy out of the pen instead of their A guy. Of course, both starters could shove, and it end up being a 1-0 game, but with these metal bats, small ball parks, and suspect defenses, odds are in our favor to get runs in bunches in front of sold-out crowds. In my opinion, it’s easier to hit the over 6.5 on a Friday Night, than an over 11.5 on a Sunday.
Saturday/Sunday:
Winning a college baseball bet on Saturday’s and Sundays really comes down to discipline and research. I say that because one of the biggest advantages you can get over Vegas is bullpen use, and weather. The bookmakers in Las Vegas don’t have time to look at who has/hasn’t pitched, and what direction the wind is going to be blowing in the NC State vs Charlotte game. So, if you have a little bit of time to research those factors, you will have the upper hand cashing that ticket. For example, last season there was a game a Saturday game between some mid-major and Georgia Tech. The Friday night game was back and forth and both teams used their best weapons out of the pen. Well going into Saturday, the over/under was at 9.5 and the wind was blowing out at 20mph. I think the game had over 20 runs scored and probably hit the over in the first 3 innings hahaha. I mean, there is some real money to be made out there if you have the time to look at these few factors.
2nd Midweek Game of Week:
Every once in a while, teams will play a midweek game on Tuesday and Wednesday. Let me tell you what, if you see 2 teams playing their 2nd midweek game of the week, just go ahead and bet that over. It's not guaranteed to hit, but you have so many factors playing in your favor. Not only are these teams going to save their best bullets for Friday, but this is also probably their 5th game in 6 days, so their hitters are well timed up in the box and probably seeing beach balls. On top of that, these games are sometimes used as experiment games for bullpens. Coaches want to see guys out there who don't pitch much to evaluate if they will make the travel roster for the upcoming weekend. Spoiler alert, these guys pitching either have serious control problems or they just flat-out stink. Give me every over throughout the season for 2 teams playing a 2nd midweek game. Done.
Weather:
As a former college baseball player, I can absolutely tell you that weather plays a factor in gameplay. This isn't the MLB with professional level field maintenance crews, or a roof above your head. You are going to see a lot more walks and errors in games below 50 degrees than you are when it’s 90 degrees outside. You are going to see a lot more home runs when the wind is blowing out 12mph vs blowing in 12mph. It’s easier to hit in the rain than it is to pitch and field in the rain. As of right now, there is no easy way to go about researching the weather for each game other than looking it up on the Weather App and plugging it into games available to bet. But you have free access to do your own weather research to give you the best advantage.
Underdogs:
When's the best time to bet an underdog? Well, the best answer is always who is playing baseball right now. College baseball is a very streaky game. Teams will get hot in spurts throughout the season, while others get ice cold. There are many times when Vegas sets the line based off of record alone, so you will see a 12-7 Boston College at +255 against a 16-4 Clemson team. But what flies under the radar is BC has won 6 straight, while Clemson lost 3 of their last 4. This would be an example of when I would be betting an underdog in college baseball. Another example would be teams who lose on Friday night but saved their bullpen for Saturday. I say this because it is very common for teams to bounce back on Saturday after losing on Friday. Many series come down to Sunday's rubber game, so I always feel like there is a lot of value on a Saturday underdog who lost the night before. Especially if they are the home team.
Parlays:
Everyone loves a good parlay. Throw $5 down on 8 random games and try and turn that into $10,000. I do that sometimes for funzies, I’m not even going to lie. But when it comes to making smarter parlays in college baseball, I think there are some great strategies to use. In fact, I’d say there are 3 strategies that will give you the best chance of withdrawing money from your account.
There were many things running through my brain while writing this piece on gambling strategies. I am so passionate about this stuff and probably could have written a 10-page blog about all of the scenarios. I tried my best to condense it into some key factors I use each and every year. Now again, if you are interested in learning more or becoming a part of our college baseball betting community where I share my daily picks and analysis, please take a look at joining our Patreon/Discord channel where we are going to be firing away bets throughout the season and post-season.
